2026 Wildfire Outlook

We like these month-by-month maps of wildfire potential for the  season.

For the 7 day significant fire potential (updated daily) + more:

Brief outlook summary for Montana


Early August: Montana's wildfire risk increased throughout the month of July and into August with very little precipitation and extreme heat during the last couple weeks in July, as well as a projected dry forecast for August. Thunderstorms during late July brought lightning, striking up new fires around the Idaho and Montana border. Early August has brought a cold front featuring little precipitation and increased winds helping to spread existing wildfires and carry smoke to the Missoula valley.


Although Montana's risk for wildfires appears relatively normal for the majority of the summer, neighboring states such as Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and northern California can contribute to smoke pollution here. As a result, Montana can experience unhealthy air quality even when there are few local fires. 

Western Montana Wildfire and Smoke Outlook Webinar


This webinar took place on June 9th, 2026, and highlights predictions for the 2026 wildfire season in western Montana. It features speakers from the Montana Climate Office, National Weather Service, US Forest Service, and other local groups. After an unusually warm winter and below average snowpack, many wonder what the summer will hold. Speakers presented up to date weather and climate projections and tips for how to prepare for wildfires and smoke. 




Webinar Summary


  • As of June 9, the severity of wildfires in western Montana this summer is projected to be near normal due to relatively high precipitation since October 2025, despite low winter snowpack. 


  • Higher Smoke intensity due to drought and fire-prone conditions in many areas of northern California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho and British Columbia. 


  • Wild card factors include the emerging El Niño cycle, the potential for severe lightning due to anticipated monsoon storm patterns, and an extended forecast for a summer that is hotter and drier than normal. 


  • Current and projected conditions for 2026 are a preview of what to expect mid-century due to a warming and more energetic global climate system. 



  • Panelists discussed strategies for households and communities to reduce risks to health and property from wildfires and smoke.